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Feb 05

My Latest View on AUDNZD

  • I found that AUDNZD is going to create a very good price action pattern in near future.
  • In weekly chart, we got a morning star candlestick pattern in last week. The last week bullish candle was significant. This week starts with bullish sentiment.
  • If we zoom in to daily chart, we can see that price nicely bounced back from 1.0550 support level. In consolidation zone, price tried to break the level but it was not able to do so. AUDNZD1
  • Now price is testing 1.090 resistance level. If it breaks this level it may go towards north strongly. May be it can reach up to 1.1200 or 1.1565 level (marked in the daily attached chart with green boxes).
  • Two possible scenarios may occur.
  • Scenario 1: As every body is looking at this pair for buy opportunity it may hikes up and can break the 1.090 level easily. It will not be wise to jump in that level quickly. If it breaks rapidly it will be better to wait for retracement up to last resistance level and then we should look for price action buy signal, may be in H4 chart.AUDNZD1a
  • Scenario 2: I am expecting this move. Price may retrace back to 1.078 level first. Later, it will move strongly towards north.

AUDNZD1b

  • My trade plan will be as follows: I will wait for the retracement up to the retracement zone marked in gray box. If I get any price action buy signal in lower time frame I will go for that. My 1st and 2nd take profit target will be green boxes and will depend on day’s closing and my stop loss will be near red box and will be decided by daily close. I will prefer scenario 2 over scenario 1 cause in that case my risk reward ration will be good. If I do not receive any clear price action buy signal in gray zone, I will wait up to red box. If we get a buy signal, it will be a good signal for buy, cause may be that will help to create double bottom pattern. But, if it closes under red zone, I will totally out cause it may create huge movement to downward.

Disadvantage:

  • This pair is behaving abruptly from couple of months. Several times in past few weeks, it showed false break towards north but eventually ended to south.

This time we are getting very good reversal signal too. If you look at the MACD, we can see that it is creating bullish divergence in daily chart which is a very good sign for trend reversal. I would like to play with this pair few times. I am expecting some comments from you. Specially from our analyst-AUD pairs.