May 20

NZDJPY


1. Long NZDJPY @86’90 Stop Loss 84’50 Take Profit 88’70.

2. Long NZDJPY @85’30 Stop Loss 84’50 Take Profit 86’40.

Justification: Favorable interest rate differentials for long positions. RBNZ is expected to raise rates over next few months while BoJ would maintain a near zero rate. BoJ’s QE continues. Seasonally, May is a bad month for NZD and we are taking this as an opportunity to build NZD longs. Technically, the entry level is at the support confluence of 100DMA and channel resistance.

Risk: RBNZ will intervene in the market by selling NZD, if it is appreciated excessively.

Note: If the price closes below the 100DMA (i.e below 86.77 today), cover half position. Stop Loss will be activated on a daily close basis below 84.50 only.

May 18

GOLD – 18 May 2014

  • In Daily chart, Gold is forming a descending triangle. Moreover, it is ranging between a strong support and resistance zone. It indicates that a break out may happen either in long side or in short side. 18May2014_3
  • In H4 chart, we can see that a head and shoulder pattern is forming. It has a chance to reach near the neckline.18May2014
  • We can also see that price has respected Fibonacci 50% and 38.2% before. If price reaches near 23.6% area, I would like to go for short targeting at least 1277.72 zone. My stop loss will be above the resistance zone of 1305.60. If we take trade around 1294 zone, the risk reward ratio will be 1: 1.6.
  • Disadvantage: If you look closely the H4 chart, we can see that price is reacting very sharply when it touched the support zone. Therefore, buyers are waiting in that zone. Moreover, in daily chart I also showed that break out may happen sooner or later. If it breaks up, we should take the loss gracefully.

18May2014_2

  • Advantage: Long term trend of Gold is downside. Recently, it also made some bullish correction to gain some extra forces to show the bearish momentum again. If it breaks lower, Gold may go at least 1240 area or even further.

May 01

AUDNZD: Updated Analysis

Dear All,

I have drafted a post to share the updated analysis of AUDNZD yesterday. (I could not post image in comment, so tried to add a separate post). When I tried to see the preview, the post was gone, I don’t know what was the issue, but I could not retrieve it back. It was completely vanished. Anyway,  I  am trying to share something similar here. (better to save it somewhere else before publish this time! )

——–

I was trying to do price action analysis for the AUDNZD.

audnzd- w1

I start with a longer time frame, week. If we see the AUDNZD-W1 chart, we can see a clear down trend for the last 3 years. And the price is at its lowest region of past over 5 years. However, the price is bounced back from the lowest support and the down trend slowed down. We can expect a bullish rally for a long term tread.

audnzd- d1

The daily chart shows the price was bounced back from the support and made a uptrend channel. The price broke the channel end of last month which is a clear indication of short trade. However, there is a strong support zone at 1.074-1.071 area.

audnzd- h4

The H4 chart also confirms the strong confluence support zone (shaded area). It can be possible to take a long from this zone using pin bars, bullish reversal divergence, and/or bullish engulfing patterns on hourly time frame.

The 1st TP should be around 1.086 area, and SL according to our money management,.

Thank you.

 

Apr 26

Let’s do Analysis together on AUDNZD….

After doing a lots of self-study, I hope you have now some idea regarding FOREX. If someone’s answer is still ‘NO’, I would like to encourage you to learn how to do analysis in currency pairs.

———————————————

Let’s do one analysis together….

———————————————-

I am presenting my style of analysis. I would like to request all of you to share your own style in the comment box.

I personally always like to take my trades based on price action with the confluence of Fibonacci. Usually, I don’t like to use any kind of indicators, but sometimes I consult with MA or MACD or Bollinger Bands to find some confluences.

First, I always try to find some good support and resistance zone from past history. After that, I draw Fibonacci level to see whether that support or resistance zone match with any Fib level or not. If yes then I wait for price action signal near that zone and take my position according to my money management.

I would like to emphasize that money management and strong discipline is the only tools which can make you a successful trader. If I give same analysis to 10 persons, among them only 2 or 3 will be able to do profit with that analysis. Though, it sounds very amazing but this is the fact. Experience traders do not rely heavily on analysis or indicators rather they try to manage their portfolio with their strong money management. The main target is to minimize the loss and maximize the profit.

FOREX market has its own pulse, it does not move in same pace every time. Sometimes, it moves strongly in one direction with good technical moves and some times it becomes unpredictable or it enters in range market. Every trader will get their opportunity to make money if he/she keep patience during his/her unfavorable time and wait for his suitable time.

I want to give you a live example of analysis. The following chart of AUDNZD pair is the latest daily chart.

AUDNZD2

  • Firstly, I was looking for a price action buy signal in blue zone.Why in this blue zone? Cause this blue zone is a good support zone.
  • You can see that in last Thursday price touched the blue zone and moved back up in days closing. Therefore, it created a pin bar in our expected zone. In next day, price gave some retracement. So, now it is in a good position for long.
  • In the attached chart, you can see that if your stop loss is around red zone and your 1st, 2nd and 3rd profit zone is the green boxes respectively, you can easily target for 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3 risk-reward ration. Therefore, the R/R ration of this trade setup is good.
  • This place is also suitable for me to manage my trade with my own money management. Why this point is important? Cause you never know where the market will move in future. You need to be prepared to handle any kind of worst scenario. If you think that you can handle the worst situation for the trade setup then you can take your trade. Otherwise, it is wise to stay in sideline to find any better opportunity within your money management.

What is your opinion about AUDNZD trade setup? You can also post some fundamental news regarding this pair in the comment section of this post. I am expecting some insights and comments from you.

PLEASE TRY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE DISCUSSION BY GIVING ANY KIND OF COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK. 

Apr 26

i-ONE Group Meeting

Dear All,

Hope you are fine.

It is time for i-ONE group meeting after long time! The meeting is open to all i-ONE members. The meeting will be on 3rd May 2014 (Saturday) via Skype. Our chief trader will be the chair for this meeting. We will discuss several agenda as given below.

  • Agenda 1: Introduction & work distribution of Dr. Gautom and Engr. Baurno.
  • Agenda 2: Discuss regarding updates and the upcoming trading plan
  • Agenda 3: Discuss regarding upcoming trade set up from corresponding analyst
  • Agenda 4: Open discussion

 

Official Skype name: bdfxgroup

 If you have any questions or suggestions, please let us know. Hope to see you at the meeting!

Mar 01

ARTICLE ABOUT: GOLD PRICE, CRASH OR CORRECTION (26FEB2014)

I’m sharing an interesting article about gold price.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-crash-022620144

Feb 07

Natural Gas – Time to Go Down?

ngas-mar14monthly

In the monthly chart, an evening star is forming. Besides, warmer season is ahead.ngas-mar14daily

In the daily chart, double top is forming.

Execution Plan: Short entry when price goes below 4.72 with S/L @ 5.47, T/P1 @ 3.93, T/P2 @ 3.37, T/P3 @ 3.09

Feb 05

My Latest View on AUDNZD

  • I found that AUDNZD is going to create a very good price action pattern in near future.
  • In weekly chart, we got a morning star candlestick pattern in last week. The last week bullish candle was significant. This week starts with bullish sentiment.
  • If we zoom in to daily chart, we can see that price nicely bounced back from 1.0550 support level. In consolidation zone, price tried to break the level but it was not able to do so. AUDNZD1
  • Now price is testing 1.090 resistance level. If it breaks this level it may go towards north strongly. May be it can reach up to 1.1200 or 1.1565 level (marked in the daily attached chart with green boxes).
  • Two possible scenarios may occur.
  • Scenario 1: As every body is looking at this pair for buy opportunity it may hikes up and can break the 1.090 level easily. It will not be wise to jump in that level quickly. If it breaks rapidly it will be better to wait for retracement up to last resistance level and then we should look for price action buy signal, may be in H4 chart.AUDNZD1a
  • Scenario 2: I am expecting this move. Price may retrace back to 1.078 level first. Later, it will move strongly towards north.

AUDNZD1b

  • My trade plan will be as follows: I will wait for the retracement up to the retracement zone marked in gray box. If I get any price action buy signal in lower time frame I will go for that. My 1st and 2nd take profit target will be green boxes and will depend on day’s closing and my stop loss will be near red box and will be decided by daily close. I will prefer scenario 2 over scenario 1 cause in that case my risk reward ration will be good. If I do not receive any clear price action buy signal in gray zone, I will wait up to red box. If we get a buy signal, it will be a good signal for buy, cause may be that will help to create double bottom pattern. But, if it closes under red zone, I will totally out cause it may create huge movement to downward.

Disadvantage:

  • This pair is behaving abruptly from couple of months. Several times in past few weeks, it showed false break towards north but eventually ended to south.

This time we are getting very good reversal signal too. If you look at the MACD, we can see that it is creating bullish divergence in daily chart which is a very good sign for trend reversal. I would like to play with this pair few times. I am expecting some comments from you. Specially from our analyst-AUD pairs.

Jan 20

Quick Update on EURUSD (20 Jan’14)

What do you think about this upcoming trade setup on EURUSD…… If I get a price action signal near blue zone, I will go for short. It just broke the trend line last day of last week., it closed under it. It also closed under the support zone. If price retrace back towards trend line or resistance zone (previous support now becomes resistance), it will be a good opportunity for sell EURUSD. If any one has different view on it, please share your views….

2014 Jan 20

 

 

Jan 17

Focus on Natural Gas

The following video explains about natural gas future:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/natural-gas-could-test-lows-on-warm-weather-shover-HvSyQlEaQj6xi5P~6XkAxQ.htmlngas-feb14dailyNatural gas moves a bit slow but with seasonality. It appears that it has reached the peak of this season and would go low as the weather warms up in the North America.

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